The Average New Car Now Costs $45,915, and the Average Payment Hit a Record $821

The numbers, in one place

J.D. Power and GlobalData's September 2026 forecast, published September 24, lays out the affordability picture plainly:

• •Average transaction price: $45,915, up 0.7% year over year
• •Average monthly finance payment: $821, up 3.2% and the highest ever recorded for September
• •Average new-vehicle loan rate: 6.66%, down 4 basis points and the lowest September reading since 2022
• •Average incentive spending per vehicle: $3,574, up 7.3%
• •Incentives as a share of MSRP: 6.9%, up 0.4 points
• •Share of loans at 84 months or longer: 13.9%, up 2.0 points
• •Share of trade-ins carrying negative equity: 29.4%, up 0.3 points
• •Subprime share of the mix: 11.2%, up 2.2 points

The payment is rising even as the rate falls

This is the part worth sitting with. Financing got marginally cheaper, and the payment still went up.

Two things are doing that. Longer terms have stretched to 84 months on nearly one in seven loans, and that used to be enough on its own to hold a payment down. What has changed is trade equity. Many buyers returning to showrooms now bought when prices peaked and inventory was scarce. J.D. Power reports that 29.4% of trade-ins arrived carrying negative equity, and that balance rolls into the next loan and raises the payment regardless of the rate.

Longer terms are not making cars cheaper. They are spreading a bigger number across more months.

What it means at the desk

If you are shopping right now, three things follow from this data.

First, your trade is the single biggest lever you control. Get a written offer from a competing dealer or a buying service before you discuss the new car at all. A negative-equity position is much easier to argue about when you already know the number.

Second, incentives are real, and they are concentrated in gas and hybrid vehicles. Spending on internal combustion and hybrid models rose 31.6% year over year to $3,319 per unit. EV incentives moved the other way, falling 21.7% to $8,829. If you are shopping a hybrid, the manufacturer is helping more than it did last year.

Third, the rate is not the whole deal. At 6.66% over 84 months, a $5,000 difference in price moves the payment by roughly $75 a month. Price negotiation still matters more than a quarter point of rate.

The bigger picture

Retail sales for September are projected at 1,117,200 units, essentially flat year over year on a selling-day adjusted basis. Total consumer spending on new vehicles is projected to rise 6.6% to $48.7 billion.

Buyers are not leaving the market. They are stretching to stay in it, and the stretch shows up in loan length, negative equity and subprime share all at once. Those three numbers are the ones to watch next month.

Source: J.D. Power and GlobalData U.S. Automotive Forecast, September 2026.